2025 STATE OF THE BAY

Dr. Marcus Beck, mbeck@tbep.org, Kerry Flaherty-Walia kfwalia@tbep.org

Tampa Bay Estuary Program

Jan, 2026

WATER QUALITY REPORT CARD

https://tbep-tech.github.io/wq-static/wq.pdf

Management

Regulatory

Two sides to report card, first side showing management outcomes is relevant to TAC, second side relevant to NMC.

MANAGEMENT ACTIONS

• Each bay segment assigned a management action

Management actions defined by both chlorophyll and light attenuation, considers magnitude of exceedance for each year above targets and duration of exceedence from previous four years.

MANAGEMENT RESULTS

Table shows bay segment management outcomes for chlorophyll on the left and light attenuation on the right. Annual averages are compared to management targets. Note that chlorophyll and light attenuation targets all met.

MANAGEMENT OUTCOMES

• Matrix shows attainment of chlorophyll and light attenuation targets
• All segments in 2025 as “Stay the Course”
• More info at https://shiny.tbep.org/wq-dash/

Note historical perspective showing long-term bay recovery. Also note OTB as “caution” from 2015 to 2021, but dry years in 2022, 2023, 2025.

REGULATORY THRESHOLDS

• Each bay segment evaluated by chlorophyll-a threshold

Only related to chlorophyll thresholds, magnitude of exceedence, no duration component. Relevant for NMC, not the TAC.

REGULATORY OUTCOMES

• Matrix shows attainment of chlorophyll threshold (red/green only)
• All segments in 2025 met the annual threshold
• More info at https://shiny.tbep.org/wq-dash/

Note historical perspective showing long-term bay recovery. Also note OTB non-attainment in recent years.

CHLOROPHYLL TRENDS

All bay segments show an increase in chlorophyll from last year due to storms, note different y-axis scales. Solid blue line is bay segment management target. Top dotted line is “large exceedence”, +2 standard errors above the target based on historical reference period.

2025 CHLOROPHYLL

Map shows annual average chlorophyll at each sample station. Note that segment outcomes are based on site averages.

SEASONAL CHLOROPHYLL

Monthly chlorophyll averages…

LIGHT ATTENUATION TRENDS

Note fixed y-axes.

2025 LIGHT ATTENUATION

Map shows annual average light attenuation at each sample station.

SEASONAL LIGHT ATTENUATION

Note fixed y-axis across plots.

TAMPA BAY ANNUAL RAINFALL

2025 SEAGRASS TRANSECT RESULTS

• Similar as last year, but species and bay segment differences
• More info at https://shiny.tbep.org/seagrasstransect-dash/

Note increase in Halodule

2025 SEAGRASS TRANSECT RESULTS

2025 SEAGRASS TRANSECTS BY SITE

PYRODINIUM STATUS

FIB REPORT CARD

• Annual summary of Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) data at major inflows to each bay segment
• Communicates exposure risk associated with fecal contaminants
• https://shiny.tbep.org/fib-dash

Likelihood of exceeding threshold of 130 CFU / 100mL (FDEP/FDOH) for Enterococcus

• A: < 10%
• B: 10-30%
• C: 30-50%
• D: 50-75%
• E: > 75%

FIB REPORT CARD

WATER QUALITY TAKE HOME

• All segments provisionally meet chlorophyll and light attenuation management targets, regulatory thresholds
• OTB light attenuation suggests separate trend from chlorophyll-a
• 2025 another dry year…

Take home here is that we’re coming off dry years. Do not lose focus on OTB due to disconnect between water quality outcomes and continued seagrass loss.

NEKTON RESULTS

• Nekton index reports on the health of fish and inverts
• Responds to water quality and habitat degradation
• 2024 results show all bay segments as caution, except LTB
• More info at https://shiny.tbep.org/nekton-dash/

2024 NEKTON RESULTS

BENTHIC RESULTS

• Benthic index reports on the health of aquatic organisms in or near the bay bottom
• Responds to pollutants that can accumulate in the sediment
• 2024 results similar to previous years
• More info at https://tbep-tech.github.io/tbeptools/articles/tbbi

2024 BENTHIC RESULTS

INVASIVE SPECIES DASHBOARD

• Newly completed dashboard
• Shows invasive species observations from USGS/iNaturalist
• Compares with landscape ranked by ecological value (FLAM)
• Link and report card forthcoming

2025 HABITAT RESTORATION

NUMBER OF PROJECTS OVER TIME

HABITAT MASTER PLAN PROGRESS

Identifying priority habitats…

2026 RESTORATION PRIORITIES

Oyster Bars

Forested Freshwater Wetlands

Coastal Uplands

• Additional info: https://tbep.org/habitat-master-plan-update

Questions??

Marcus Beck, mbeck@tbep.org

Kerry Flaherty-Walia, kfwalia@tbep.org

2025 OTB ANOMALIES

2024 OTB ANOMALIES

PERCENT SILT-CLAY

PERCENT SILT-CLAY

OTB NANOPLANKTON